Harry Crane (Rutgers): "Gambler's Wisdom: Adverse Selection, Severe Uncertainty, and Common Sense"


Location: 220 Malloy Hall (View on map.nd.edu)

Title: Gambler's Wisdom: Adverse Selection, Severe Uncertainty, and Common Sense

Speaker: Harry Crane, Professor, Department of Statistics, Rutgers University


In theory, probability is a mathematical framework in which events are assigned numbers that add up to 1.  Debates about the interpretation of these numbers (as frequencies, credences, propensities, or other) occupy philosophers and other academics, but such considerations don't matter in the real world.  In practice, probability is both more complex and less complicated than its common representation in mathematical probability theory.   In this talk, I discuss theoretical, practical, psychological, and ethical aspects of risk, uncertainty, and probability in the context of a real world case study from professional gambling.  (Based on a true story.)

Originally published at philosophyofscience.nd.edu.